Nthawi yoyambira kupanga, moyo wautumiki wopangira, nthawi yobwerera - kodi mumasiyanitsa bwino?

Nthawi yoyambira mapangidwe, moyo wantchito yopangira, ndi nthawi yobwerera ndi malingaliro anthawi zitatu omwe akatswiri omanga amakumana nawo. Ngakhale Unified Standard for Reliability Design of Engineering Structures
"Miyezo" (yotchedwa "Miyezo") Mutu 2 "Terms" imatchula matanthauzo a nthawi yowonetsera mapangidwe ndi moyo wautumiki wa mapangidwe, koma kusiyana kwake ndi kotani, akuti anthu ambiri akadali osokonezeka pang'ono.

1. Nthawi yobwerera
Tisanalowe m'nkhaniyo, tiyeni tionenso "nthawi yobwereza". M'nkhani yathu yapitayi, kamodzi pazaka 50 = kamodzi pazaka 50? ——Monga tafotokozera m’lingaliro lachinayi la liwiro la mphepo limene akatswiri omangamanga ayenera kudziwa, nthawi yobwerera kwa katunduyo imanena za “avareji ya nthawi pakati pa kuchitika kapena kuchitika kwa chochitika”, ndi nthawi yobwereza yoyezedwa mu “zaka” ndi kuchulukira kwa katunduyo pachaka Kuthekera kumayenderana mosiyana. Mwachitsanzo, kwa katundu wamphepo wokhala ndi nthawi yobwerera kwa zaka 50, kuthekera kopitilira pachaka ndi 2%; kwa katundu wamphepo wokhala ndi nthawi yobwerera kwa zaka 100, kuthekera kopitilira pachaka ndi 1%.

Kwa mphamvu ya mphepo yomwe mwayi wake woposa pachaka ndi p, mwayi wosapitirira liwiro la mphepo m'chaka chinachake ndi 1-p, ndipo mwayi wosapitirira liwiro la mphepo m'zaka za N ndi (1-p) ku mphamvu ya Nth. Chifukwa chake, kuthekera kopitilira muyeso wa liwiro la mphepo mzaka za N zitha kuwerengedwa motsatira njira iyi:

Molingana ndi chilinganizo ichi: pa kuchuluka kwa mphepo muzaka 50 zobwerera, kuthekera kopitilira pachaka ndi p=2%, ndipo kuthekera kopitilira muzaka 50 ndi:

The 100-year Transcendence Probability imakula mpaka:

Ndipo mwayi wopitilira zaka 200 udzafika:

2. Nthawi yoyambira yopangira
Kuchokera ku chitsanzo chapamwambachi, titha kupeza kuti pa katundu wosiyanasiyana, ndizopanda tanthauzo kungotchula mwayi wopitirira popanda kutchula kutalika kwa nthawi. Pambuyo pake, anthu adzafa m'kupita kwa nthawi, mwayi woposa katundu wosiyanasiyana udzakhala pafupi ndi 100%, ndipo nyumba zidzagwa (pokhapokha zitagwetsedwa asanagwe). Chifukwa chake, kuti mugwirizanitse mulingo woyezera, ndikofunikira kutchula sikelo yanthawi yogwirizana ngati gawo la nthawi yamitengo yosinthika. Nthawi imeneyi ndi "nthawi yowonetsera mapangidwe".

Ndime 3.1.3 ya “Code for Loading of Building Structures” ikunena kuti “nthawi ya zaka 50 yotengera kapangidwe kake idzatsatiridwa pozindikira mtengo woimilira wa katundu wosiyanasiyana.” Izi ndi zovomerezeka. Chifukwa chomwe chiri chovomerezeka ndi chakuti "palibe lamulo, palibe bwalo lalikulu", popanda kukhazikitsa nthawi, ndizopanda pake kukambirana za mwayi wopitirira katundu ndi ndondomeko yodalirika (mwina wolephera) wa mapangidwe.