In the first half of 2022, the strong demand in the distributed PV market maintained the Chinese market. Markets outside China have seen strong demand according to Chinese customs data. In the first five months of this year, China exported 63GW of PV modules to the world, tripling from the same period in 2021.
Stronger-than-expected demand in the off-season exacerbated an existing polysilicon shortage in the first half of the year, leading to continued price increases. As of the end of June, the price of polysilicon has reached RMB 270/kg, and the price increase shows no sign of stopping. This keeps module prices at their current high levels.
From January to May, Europe imported 33GW of modules from China, accounting for more than 50% of China’s total module exports.
India and Brazil are also notable markets:
Between January and March, India imported more than 8GW of modules and nearly 2GW of cells for stockpiling ahead of the introduction of the Basic Customs Duty (BCD) in early April. After the implementation of BCD, module exports to India fell below 100 MW in April and May.
In the first five months of this year, China exported more than 7GW of modules to Brazil. Clearly, demand in Brazil is stronger this year. Southeast Asian manufacturers are allowed to ship modules as U.S. tariffs are suspended for 24 months. With this in mind, demand from non-Chinese markets is expected to exceed 150GW this year.
Strong demand
Strong demand will continue into the second half of the year. Europe and China will enter a peak season, while the U.S. may see demand pick up after the tariff waivers. InfoLink expects demand to increase quarter by quarter in the second half of the year and climb to an annual peak in the fourth quarter. From a long-term demand perspective, China, Europe and the United States will accelerate global demand growth in the energy transition. Demand growth is expected to rise to 30% this year from 26% in 2021, with module demand expected to exceed 300GW by 2025 as the market continues to grow rapidly.
While total demand has changed, so has the market share of ground-mounted, industrial and commercial roofing and residential projects. Chinese policies have stimulated the deployment of distributed PV projects. In Europe, distributed photovoltaics have accounted for a larger proportion, and demand is still growing significantly.
Post time: Aug-04-2022