March 21 announced this year’s January-February photovoltaic installed data, the results greatly exceeded expectations, with year-on-year growth of nearly 90%.
The author believes that in previous years, the first quarter is the traditional off-season, this year’s off-season is not only not light, but also a record high, and along with the second half of the silicon supply release, prices continue to fall, component price reductions, the annual PV demand will exceed expectations at the beginning of the year.
On March 21, the National Energy Board released January-February national electricity industry statistics, including January-February photovoltaic new installations of 20.37GW, an increase of 87.6%. At the same time, the General Administration of Customs also released the January-February export data, including January-February battery component exports of $7.798 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year; inverter exports of $1.95 billion, up 131.1% year-on-year.
The most exceeded market expectations are the amount of installed power in January-February. According to the installation law of previous years, the first quarter and the third quarter are the off-season, the second quarter because of the “630″ rush installation, the fourth quarter because of the “1230″ rush installation is the traditional peak season, the fourth quarter installed capacity will generally exceed 40% of the year, January-February due to Spring Festival and other factors, the installed capacity is the coldest. But this year is a change from the norm in previous years, the first two months of installed capacity year-on-year growth fast doubled, and the scale is close to the cumulative installed capacity in the first half of 2022.
The market previously predicted the same as in previous years, because of the Spring Festival, and the end of last year’s epidemic, and other factors, that the January-February installation will be relatively flat, March will generally take off. But after the data came out, but a lot more optimistic than predicted.
According to my understanding, the actual situation is, from this year before and after the Spring Festival, the front-line staff rest less, more energetic than in previous years, the industry’s intuitive feeling is this, the data came out more confirmed.
Why is the beginning of the year so full of energy? Consider the following reasons:
1) clear policy, installed enthusiasm will only be more intense
From the policy side, whether it is five big six small, or private enterprises, the construction of new energy is to maintain a positive attitude, this not only has not changed, and with 14 five, 15 five delivery periods approaching, the installed enthusiasm will only become more intense.
(2) will not simply ask for components at ultra-low price, the installed machine can be on the
As we all know, under the premise of clear will, last year’s domestic installation is not as expected mainly because the upstream silicon prices are too high, resulting in the highest component price rising to 2 yuan / W, strong gaming trend directly depressed the terminal installed will, because not earn money.
With the end of last year so far silicon supply release, although the price phase rebounded for a period, the trend is downward, component prices have finally come down, and the terminal installed will start this year is much better.
It is understood that, for energy companies, when the component is down to the 1.7-1.8 yuan / W range, the terminal energy companies have been very favorable, so will not wait until the component and then continue to fall a gradient and then installed.
Because although the component cost is one of the cost considerations of energy development enterprises, but also will not be the pursuit of low prices, how the component brand, whether on-time delivery is the most important, and even if some panel factory prices are low enough, but there may be a risk of not being able to deliver on time, is not the terminal will consider the choice.
Now the real market situation is, the first quarter of this year’s installed enthusiasm is much higher than in previous years, the market competition is relatively fierce, we are grabbing the project, can be on as much as possible, especially for the five-six small state-owned enterprises, the most concerned is the end of the installed capacity of the report card how. So in this case, according to the component 1.7-1.8 yuan / W price level, it is enough, will grab the project.
Post time: Mar-24-2023