Japan's 2030 Photovoltaic Outlook: Can Midday Power Supply on Sunny Days Take the Lead?

On March 30, 2022, the Resource Comprehensive System Research Institute of Japan released a report, announcing the actual installed capacity data of photovoltaic (PV) systems as of 2020 and updating the "Installation Forecast of Japan's Photovoltaic Market in 2030 (2022 Edition)".

According to its estimation:

    • As of 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic systems in Japan (DC output, DC) was approximately 72 GW.

    • Conventional growth scenario (maintaining the current annual growth rate of approximately 8GW DC) : It is predicted that by the fiscal year 2030, the installed capacity will reach 154 GW DC (corresponding to AC output, with AC approximately 121 GW).

    • Accelerated deployment scenario (expected significant improvement in grid-connected environment) : The installed capacity will reach 180 GW DC (corresponding to AC output, with AC approximately 140 GW).

For reference, in the "Sixth Basic Energy Plan" formulated by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on October 22, 2021, the target for solar power generation capacity by 2030 was set at "117.6 GW (AC output, AC, positive target level)". METI's "positive target" is almost equivalent to the predicted value under the current normal growth rate.

Key conversion: Nominal power and actual output

    • The rated power values of the photovoltaic system based on direct current (DC) mentioned above are the nominal values under ideal conditions such as meeting specific temperatures and sunlight angles.

    • The actual net peak power generation is usually about 70% of the rated value (that is, it needs to be multiplied by a coefficient of 0.7).

    • Therefore, during the peak midday period on a sunny day in 2030:

        • Under the regular growth scenario, the actual AC output is expected to be approximately 85 GW.

        • Under the accelerated deployment scenario, it is estimated that the actual AC output will be approximately 98 GW.

Peak demand matching degree analysis

    • In recent years, Japan's national peak electricity demand (AC benchmark) has been approximately 160 GW (it reached about 180 GW AC before the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, but later declined due to the promotion of social energy conservation, the slowdown of economic growth and the transformation of the economic structure).

    • Assuming that the peak electricity demand in 2030 remains at the current level (approximately 160 GW AC) :

        • Under the accelerated deployment scenario, the midday photovoltaic output (98 GW AC) on a sunny day can meet approximately 61% of the national peak demand of 98 GW / 160 GW.

Under this development landscape, the steady growth of Japan's photovoltaic industry is inseparable from the exploration of diversified application scenarios.

As an international enterprise deeply involved in Japan's energy transition, Solar First Group has successfully connected multiple differentiated photovoltaic projects to the grid in Japan in recent years: large-scale ground-mounted solar power stations built in flat areas, maximizing the utilization of limited land resources and enhancing power generation efficiency; The solar agricultural platform project implemented in the agricultural area innovatively installs photovoltaic panels above the farmland, achieving "agriculture and photovoltaic complementarity", which not only ensures grain production but also adds a new clean energy channel. In addition, the distributed solar roof support system promoted in cooperation with the local government has covered industrial and commercial parks as well as public buildings, effectively alleviating the pressure on urban electricity usage.

（The photovoltaic project of Solar First Group in Japan)

These projects not only directly contributed tens of megawatts of grid-connected capacity, but also explored the optimal power generation model under Japan's complex geographical and climatic conditions through technological adaptation. For instance, the agricultural platform project balanced the light and power generation demands of crops by adjusting the inclination Angle of photovoltaic panels, while the roof support system was designed to enhance wind resistance in areas frequently hit by typhoons.

(The photovoltaic project of Solar First Group in Japan)

The practice of Solar First has confirmed the core condition of "improved grid connection environment" in the accelerated deployment scenario. The continuous expansion of its project library is becoming one of the key fulcrums to drive Japan towards its 140GW AC output target.

(The photovoltaic project of Solar First Group in Japan)

The core of the conclusion: Even in the most optimistic accelerated deployment scenario, the photovoltaic power generation at noon on a sunny day in Japan in 2030 is expected to cover approximately 60% of the country's peak electricity demand.